Saturday, April 24, 2010

Weekend Box Office Projections: The Back-Up Plan - 11.7, The Losers - 8.6, Oceans - 6.3

Based on the Friday numbers from BOM:

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. How to Train Your Dragon15.5-21%
2. The Back-Up Plan11.7$3,570 PTA
3. Date Night10.0-40%
4. Kick-Ass9.0-55%
5. The Losers8.6$2,930 PTA
6. Clash of the Titans8.0-48%
7. Death at a Funeral7.5-54%
8. Oceans6.3/8.8$5,220 PTA
9. The Last Song3.7-38%
10. Alice in Wonderland2.2-40%

Not much surprise in general.  My worst call is Oceans, as I overestimated how good its per-theater-average could be while playing only on one screen at most theaters.  In the end it will still have a healthy average for the weekend, one that is better than what Earth got.

Kick-Ass also fell quite a bit harder than I expected.  The word-of-mouth among its targeted audience is very good, but a CinemaScore of B indicates the overall WOM is divided.  The Losers, although not earning much itself, provided direct competition nonetheless.  I'd like to think my good-will after watching the movie on Monday clouded my judgment a little. :-)

BOM has How to Train Your Dragon at $3.44m, but BOG said 3.7, so it could fluctuate some from my current projection,  anywhere from 14.5 to 16.5.

1 comment:

  1. Kick Ass dropped 69% in the U.K. second weekend, but had a very good hold third weekend. (I can't remember, but it was less than 30%)