Friday, April 2, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 2 - 4)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Clash of the Titans62.0$16,420 PTA
2. How to Train Your Dragon30.0-31.4%
3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too26.0$12,060 PTA
4. The Last Song17.0$6,360 PTA
5. Alice in Wonderland9.6-45.8%
6. Hot Tub Time Machine8.2-41.5%
7. The Bounty Hunter7.0-41.7%
8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid6.8-32.8%
9. Shutter Island1.8-43.5%
10. She's Out of My League1.6-54.4%

1. Clash of the Titans will rule the weekend, but I am not feeling $70m+ for Friday to Sunday, as the buzz did not feel as high as what 300 had, and having shows start at 8pm Thursday will also dilute the actual weekend gross.

2. Normally Tyler Perry's films has a clear divide in term of box office, where the ones featuring Madea would open to $30m+ while the ones without would do only around $20m or less. However, Why Did I Get Married Too is in a good position to break that trend. The African-American audience has been very much underserved for the first quarter of the year, and the Easter weekend could help both Friday and Sunday. Seeing it approaching $30m this weekend would not surprise me.

3. The Last Song opened to No. 1 on Wednesday with a solid $5.1m, but the double factor of Nicholas Sparks and Miley Cyrus should assure quite a bit more upfront demand than other recent pre-Easter Wednesday releases. Look for it to drop 20-25% on Thursday, rebound 90% on Friday, and then have a 2.3-2.5 multiplier.

4. How to Train Your Dragon may not have opened as well as people expected, but it doe have the best word-of-mouth of any films so far this year, and that will allow it to exhibit excellent legs.  I in fact believe it will outgross Clash of the Titans in the end.

5. Hot Tub Time Machine also carries good WOM.  Unfortunately, Titans represents a direct competition for its male audience, and with Kick-Ass opening in a couple of weeks, it doesn't appear to have the window for a very lengthy run.  The average opening PTA will work against its favor as well.