Friday, April 16, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 16 - 18)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Death at a Funeral24.0$9,760 PTA
2. Kick-Ass22.0$7,180 PTA
3. How to Train Your Dragon16.5-33.6%
4. Date Night14.5-42.5%
5. Clash of the Titans14.4-45.9%
6. The Last Song5.1-48.1%
7. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too5.0-54.6%
8. Alice in Wonderland3.3-37.8%
9. Hot Tub Time Machine3.1-42.9%
10. The Bounty Hunter2.6-38.3%

Between the two new releases, Kick-Ass definitely has an upper hand in terms of buzz.  However, when comparing to other similar films, I have a hard time envisioning a $30m+ opening weekend.  Its Box Office Mojo poll numbers (35.3% Opening Weekend, 20.1% Sometimes in Theaters) are several notches below what Sin City (55.1% OW, 21.4% SiT) and V for Vendetta (41.8% OW, 29.2% SiT) gathered.  Kick-Ass's source is relatively young, so while there are a lot of vocal supporters online, its audience may not be as broad as others, especially when come to grab the attention of older males.  Then there is the conflict between the teenage demographics that the story clearly attracts to and its strict R-rating; in another word, how many of the people who are interested in seeing the film will actually buy a ticket for it instead of having to sneak in through a different movie remains a legitimate question.

Death at a Funeral, on the other hand, has a clearly targeted audience and will not need to deal with any such confusion.  Its BOM poll figures of 7.6% OW + 12.5% SiT are in fact quite a bit better than what an African-American film normally receives.  I would argue between the two, it has a smaller potential downside.  Look for a very close race on Friday, with possibly $9m for each film, but Death at a Funeral will pull out a victory with a better internal multiplier.  Long term though is a different story.

Having both new wide releases R-rated, especially with one primed for sneak-in business like Kick-Ass, means good news for the majority of holdovers.  Outside Hot Tub Time Machine, the only R-rated movie among last week's top 10, the film that set to benefit the least would likely be The Last Song, since it is the last movie teenage boys would try to buy a ticket to sneak into Kick-Ass.  Why Did I Get Married Too has to face direct competition, and most of its audience is over 17 anyway, so it should continue dropping hard, although there could be some hope if Death at a Funeral experiences a lot of sellouts.

Some are predicting a sub-30% or even sub-20% decline for How to Train Your Dragon, but my calculation does not yield such optimistic result.  Comparing to last week, it will have a much better Friday jump (should be 200% or above) and an IM, but on the other hand, spring break helped inflate last weekend's overall figure some.  Monsters vs. Aliens translated a 64.2% Wed-to-Wed drop to a 35.6% decline the equivalent frame last year; while How to Train Your Dragon should definitely do better, turning its 66.2% Wed-to-Wed drop into a sub-30% number will require some magnificent daily recoveries.

1 comment:

  1. Whoa are predicts are identical ... there's like 0.3 mil difference on the entire list

    Will be interesting to see who gets it better on the derby :)