Friday, March 19, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 19 - 21)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Alice in Wonderland40.5-35.3%
2. The Bounty Hunter21.0$6,830 PTA
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid12.5$4,060 PTA
4. Repo Men8.5$3,370 PTA
5. Green Zone7.8-45.5%
6. Avatar5.0-23.4%
7. She's Out of My League5.0-48.9%
8. Shutter Island4.8-41.0%
9. Our Family Wedding4.5-41.0%
10. Remember Me3.5-56.7%

1. Alice in Wonderland will win the 3rd weekend in a row for sure. The real question is if it could break $40m. From the daily analysis it looks very possible. Both the Sat-to-Sat and Sun-to-Sun drops last week hovered around 40%, and the midweek hold would almost always be better this week than the last. Friday increase will be lower since many college students have the entire week off due to spring break, but it is offset by the smaller Monday decline. St. Patrick's Day suppressed Wednesday's gross, so it could be very well looking at a 10-15% increase on Thursday, then a reasonable assumption for the weekend would produce something like 4.71*1.125*2.2*(1+1.5+1.5*0.65) = $40.5m.

2. With a formula that has been successful at the box office (two stars of opposite sex in a PG-13 comedy), The Bounty Hunter should grab the second position without much trouble. although reaching the height of Couples Retreat is rather unlikely. Look for a $7.5m Friday and $21m weekend.

3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid has had good advance sales, but other signs are not very promising. The BOM polls are better than How to Eat Fried Worms and Shorts, but they are only on par with what The Tooth Fairy had. Along with the tracking numbers (MTC - 13, RS - mid-teen), it does not appear to have the breakout potential for an opening over $20m.

4. Carrying a R rating and an unexciting trailer, Repo Men has the dimmest prospect. The reviews are not helping either, and Universal has to continue lamenting their recent luck (or lack thereof) in earning good return on their investment.

5. Green Zone will perform similarly to The Kingdom and Body of Lies with a drop in the 43-47% range.

6. Avatar will lost another 28% of its theaters, but since almost all of them were 2D screens, it should see another increase in PTA to $4000+.

7. She's Out of My League will get hit by the new films as well as the start of March Madness. Being rated R, it won't benefit from any potential sneak-in business either.

8. As we have seen from Johnson Family Vacation, Our Family Wedding could have good hold even with terrible reviews. Its dailies so far have been encouraging, as it increased on both Saturday and Tuesday. A sub-40% decline would not be surprising.

9. Remember Me will no doubt decline the heaviest given its natural frontloadedness from Pattinson's fans and poor word-of-mouth.

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