Friday, February 26, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 26 - 28)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Shutter Island20.0-51.3%
2. Cop Out18.0$5,710 PTA
3. The Crazies14.0$5,650 PTA
4. Avatar13.0-20.0%
5. Valentine's Day9.0-46.0%
6. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief9.0-41.0%
7. The Wolfman4.8-51.5%
8. Dear John4.6-35.5%
9. Tooth Fairy3.0-31.0%
10. Crazy Heart2.4-18.9%

Quick Notes:

1. There is no doubt Cop Out will become Kevin Smith's biggest opener, but whether it could break $20m as tracking suggested remains in question given its R-rating.

2. The Crazies has more upside potential than downside, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the two new releases finish within a couple of millions of each other.

3. Because some schools were off last week, the holdovers will generally see much improved Friday increases this time, especially for family-oriented films. Here is the comparison of the equivalent weekends from last year:

He's Just Not That Into You+134.4%+183.3%
Friday the 13th+163.6%+173.5%
Confessions of a Shopaholic+155.9%+214.6%
Slumdog Millionaires+220.3%+195.1%
Paul Blart: Mall Cop+182.1%+328.3%
The International+138.6%+115.1%

Coraline was hit by the loss of 3D screens to Jonas Brothers, while The International simply lost screens, and Slumdog Millionaire had a larger expansion on the 20th, but all others held up significantly better.

4. If Canada plays U.S for the Olympics hockey gold on Sunday, expect some larger than normal Sunday declines. Canada box office could especially be affected.

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