Friday, February 26, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 26 - 28)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Shutter Island20.0-51.3%
2. Cop Out18.0$5,710 PTA
3. The Crazies14.0$5,650 PTA
4. Avatar13.0-20.0%
5. Valentine's Day9.0-46.0%
6. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief9.0-41.0%
7. The Wolfman4.8-51.5%
8. Dear John4.6-35.5%
9. Tooth Fairy3.0-31.0%
10. Crazy Heart2.4-18.9%

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (2/15 - 21)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar(阿凡达)98m ($14.35m)+18.1%14,5311,689,6551.172b ($171.67m)
2. Big Soldiers(大兵小将)67m ($9.81m)+318.8%26,1761,914,28683m ($12.16m)
3. Hot Summer Days(全城热恋)49m ($7.18m)+48.5%23,5481,412,90082m ($12.01m)
4. 14 Blades(锦衣卫)28m ($4.10m)-24.3%16,415875,000122m ($17.87m)
5. All's Well Ends Well 2010(花田喜事2010)25m ($3.66m)+40.4%13,517833,33342.8m ($6.27m)
6. True Legend(苏乞儿)17.4m ($2.55m)-22.7%14,635527,27239.9m ($5.84m)
7. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2(喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威)17m ($2.49m)-13,303607,142120m ($17.58m)
8. 72 Tenants of Prosperity(72家租客)15m ($2.20m)+183.0%6,839454,54520.3m ($2.97m)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel(鼠来宝2明星俱乐部)3.5m ($0.51m)-25.5%3,723129,6308.2m ($1.20m)
10. Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard(亚瑟和他的迷你王国2)3.4m ($0.50m)New5,342113,3333.4m ($0.50m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146477)

Avatar admissions: 23,352,093

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (2/8 - 14)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar(阿凡达)83m ($12.15m)-30.8%15,4631,410,1251.074b ($157.32m)
2. 14 Blades(锦衣卫)37m ($5.42m)-35.1%24,2801,114,12294m ($13.77m)
3. Hot Summer Days(全城热恋)33m ($4.83m)New14,006874,86733m ($4.83m)
4. True Legend(苏乞儿)22.5m ($3.29m)New17,013658,47222.5m ($3.29m)
5. All's Well Ends Well 2010(花田喜事2010)17.8m ($2.61m)New10,357560,62917.8m ($2.61m)
6. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2(喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威)17m ($2.49m)-58.5%15,378567,802103m ($15.09m)
7. Big Soldiers(大兵小将)16m ($2.34m)New4,466391,58116m ($2.34m)
8. 72 Tenants of Prosperity(72家租客)5.3m ($0.78m)New3,735149,7595.3m ($0.78m)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel(鼠来宝2明星俱乐部)4.8m ($0.70m)New7,596173,1604.8m ($0.70m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1464)

Avatar admissions: 21,662,438

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Chinese New Year Holiday Update: 7 new films could not shake Avatar

Because of the week long holiday, the actual figures from China for the last couple of weeks won't be reported until later. However, some early reports have surfaced over the weekend. Despite of 7 new releases entering the most lucrative frame for box office all at the same time, none of them is really eating into Avatar's pie; instead, they are fighting each other and have left quite a few casualties in the process. Between Feb 13th and 19th, the official holiday season of Lunar New Year, Avatar grossed another estimated 120m yuan ($17.57m) to push its total to over $170m. For the new releases, a busy Jackie Chan's latest film, Big Soldiers, had the best performance, followed by the romantic comedy Hot Summer Days, which unsurprisingly took advantage of Valentine's Day to almost dethrone Avatar for one day.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 19 - 21)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Shutter Island35.5$11,870 PTA
2. Valentine's Day18.5-67.1%
3. Avatar17.5-25.9%
4. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief15.5-50.4%
5. The Wolfman11.5-63.5%
6. Dear John7.5-53.3%
7. Tooth Fairy4.8-20.7%
8. Crazy Heart3.3-22.6%
9. From Paris with Love2.7-50.9%
10. Edge of Darkness2.5-48.3%

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 12 - 15)

Movie Predicted Gross (m) Change
1. Valentin's Day 57.0 $15,550 PTA
2. The Wolfman 30.0 $9,310 PTA
3. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief 28.0 $8,340 PTA
4. Avatar 23.5 +2.8%
5. Dear John 16.5 -45.8%
6. Tooth Fairy 7.0 +5.6%
7. From Paris with Love 5.3 -35.0%
8. Edge of Darkness 4.9 -28.6%
9. Crazy Heart 4.3 +20.4%
10. When in Rome 3.6 -35.1%

This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting weekends in quite some time, with many orthogonal factors contributing to its unpredictability. In addition to Valentine's Day on Sunday, Monday is President's Day, a federal and state holiday. Then there is the Winter Olympics starting on Friday. Since it is being held in Vancouver, we could expect it to attract a bigger TV audience than four years ago, when Italy's Turin had the honor of hosting the event. Canada's box office could especially be affected given how crazy the nation is about winter sports. And we have not even discussed what happened this past week, where persistent snowstorm on the east coast and Superbowl had deflated the receipt of various days. To top it all, each of the three new releases has at least above-average appeals to its core demographics and could earn close to $120m combined over the four days. It is going to be one exciting weekend to follow.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (2/1 - 7): Avatar approaching 1 billion yuan

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar(阿凡达)120m ($17.58m)-32.2%27,2742,205,882991m ($145.17m)
2. 14 Blades(锦衣卫)57m ($8.35m)New29,6611,746,85857m ($8.35m)
3. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2(喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威)41m ($6.01m)-8.9% 35,3511,414,28086m ($12.60m)
4. Confucius(孔子)15.5m ($2.27m)-66.3%18,013469,69699.5m ($14.58m)
5. The Spy Next Door(邻家特工)7m ($1.03m)-60.2%8,831247,78764.1m ($9.39m)
6. Hong Mao Lan Tu Huo Feng Huang(虹猫蓝兔火凤凰)1.5m ($0.22m)New3,275 61,3741.5m ($0.22m)
7. Detective Conan(名侦探柯南)1.1m ($0.16m)-62.1%1,50944,3368.15m ($1.19m)
8. Hot Summer Days(全城热恋)0.75m ($0.11m)Sneak preview44319,8460.75m ($0.11m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146484)

Avatar's total admissions by last Sunday: 20,252,313; the first film ever to cross the 20m mark since the stat is officially recorded.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 5 - 7)

Movie Predicted Gross (m) Change
1. Dear John 26.2 $8,820 PTA
2. Avatar 25.5 -18.5%
3. From Paris with Love 9.1 $3,340 PTA
4. Edge of Darkness 8.9 -48.3%
5. The Tooth Fairy 7.0 -30.0%
6. When in Rome 6.0 -51.4%
7. The Book of Eli 4.7 -47.3%
8. Crazy Heart 4.6 +99.1%
9. Legion 3.1 -56.8%
10. Sherlock Holmes 2.5 -44.6%

Avatar has seen its share of challengers during its seven-week reign at the top of the domestic box office and even lost Friday a couple of times, but with its consistently superb internal multiplier, none has come close to overtake it for the entire weekend. However, this Superbowl weekend could be different, as Avatar will attempt to fend off its toughest opponent yet to extend the winning streak to 8.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (1/25 - 1/31)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar(阿凡达)177m ($25.93m)+2.9%31,8723,270,509871m ($127.59m)
2. Confucius(孔子)46m ($6.74m)+21.1%37,4691,398,60184m ($12.31m)
3. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2(喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威45m ($6.59m)New19,1731,510,57445m ($6.59m)
4. The Spy Next Door(邻家特工)17.6m ($2.58m)-23.5%18,311593,79257.1m ($8.36m)
5. Detective Conan(名侦探柯南)2.9m ($0.42m)-9.4%?101,2927.05m ($1.03m)
6. Huang Di Xia(铠甲勇士之帝皇侠)2.1m ($0.31m)+61.5%4,85482,4173.4m ($0.50m)
7. Short Of Love(矮仔多情)0.97m ($0.14m)+21.3%72431,7301.77m ($0.26m)
8. Bodyguards and Assassins(十月围城)0.97m ($0.14m)-55.9%1,57738,370293m ($42.9m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146482)

 Last week's official numbers feel much more authentic comparing to the week before.  Avatar continues to hold remarkably steady.  It is probably eye-catching to see the 2.9% weekly increase, but I suspect it more has to do with the fact that the 3rd week was under-reported.  As we move closer to Chinese Lunar New Year, a new influx of movigoers, in particular students, began to join the market, making $200m a real possibility.   The only question is how high the authority is willing to let it get to.  When True Legend, the first Chinese 3D film, opens next Tuesday, how many 3D screens Avatar loses will give us the first glimpse of the answer.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Oscar Nominations Predictions

I design this blog to focus on discussing box office related stuff, but I am also an avid lover of the awards season. Tomorrow is the big day, so I will go ahead and put out my final predictions as well.

Best Picture
01. The Hurt Locker
02. Avatar
03. Up in the Air
04. Inglourious Basterds
05. Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
06. An Education
07. Up
08. A Serious Man
09. District 9
10. Star Trek

Alt.: Invictus