Thursday, January 7, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 8 - 10)

Movie
Predicted Gross (m)
Change
1. Avatar
48.0
-29.9%
2. Daybreakers
19.5
$7,730 average
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
17.3
-50.8%
4. Sherlock Holmes
16.5
-54.9%
5. It's Complicated
10.5
-44.1%
6. Youth in Revolt
10.5
$5,600 average
7. Leap Year
8.0
$3,200 average
8. Up in the Air
7.5
-30.0%
9. The Blind Side
6.8
-42.9%
10. The Princess and the Frog
5.5
-44.0%

After a week of hiatus, the market is receiving new blood again, but Avatar looks to dominate once more to continue its march toward the final goal: surpassing Titanic. Among the three new movies, Daybreakers should easily come out on top by being the first R-rated horror movie since Saw VI. Last January, both The Unborn ($19.8m) and My Bloody Valentine 3D ($21.2m) enjoyed successful openings, and look for Daybreakers to follow their footsteps.

Neither Youth in Revolt nor Leap Year has a promising prospect. The former faces more direct competition with plenty of male-oriented films on the market, and the R rating will restrict its younger male audience, while the latter has a bland premise as well as a weak marketing push. However, the buzz on Youth in Revolt is picking up quite a bit this week, as indicated by its number of tweets, so between the two, I will definitely put money on it.

What is there more to say about Avatar that has not been said? The run has simply been one of the best ever, even with the more inflated ticket price of IMAX and 3D, and on Wednesday, exactly three weeks after its initial launch, Avatar has become the second biggest film all time globally. Domestically, it will take a little longer to achieve the same feat, but after this weekend, it will be around $430m and less than $105m from The Dark Knight.

Contrary to Avatar's superb daily holds, Sherlock Holmes has shown the exact opposite pattern and is looking at another hefty drop. Since winning its opening Friday, Sherlock Holmes had fallen further and further behind, and on Wednesday, merely 12 days later, it made only 1/3 of what Avatar did. Its Friday increase and weekend IM should be similar to how The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Valkyrie performed last year, meaning it is unlikely to avoid 50% drop even in the best scenario.

2 comments:

  1. 30% слишком низкое падение для Аватара. Думаю за уик-энд будет не меньше 50-ти миллионов.

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  2. Блин тоесть слишком большое падение, че-то у меня уже крыша едет)

    ReplyDelete