Monday, January 4, 2010

Avatar Set the Opening Day Record in China

The first Monday estimate is in, and the number is 35m yuan ($5.1m), breaking Transformer 2's previous record of 33.71m. It included 4m yuan ($0.586m) from midnight showings, also breaking Transformer 2's record of 3.5m yuan. Considering Transformer 2 was released on a summer Wednesday, a much better day than a non-holiday Monday, the opening is more than superb. This indicates the opening week's take alone will be over 200m yuan ($29.3m).

So the next question is what potential total we are looking at. Transformers 2 turned a 33.71m yuan opening day into 453m (13.4 multiplier) total, while 2012 has grossed 465m after a 27m yuan start (17.2). Avatar could easily surpass both given the better WOM, an inferior date to open a film, and the stabilization that IMAX and 3D will bring (Ice Age 3 had a multiplier of around 20). Barring any external circumstances such as the premature ending of its run or any large scale theater shutdown due to disease, I feel very comfortable in saying 500m yuan ($73m) is a lock, 600m ($88m) is 80% likely, and there is a very decent possibility of reaching 700m ($102m, 20 multiplier from the opening day).

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