Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Avatar Daily Predictions (Dec 28 - Jan 3)

After studying the daily patterns of 1998, the last time Christmas and New Year fell on Friday, I am thinking we could see the following numbers this week:

$19.5m (-19.6%)
$20.0m (+2.6%)
$17.8m (-11%)
$16.0m (-10%)
$25.0m (+56%)
$23.5m (-6%)
$16.0m (-32%)

That would give it a 3rd weekend of $64.5m (-15%) and a 17-day total of $350m. A 4.0 multiplier from there, which could very well be conservative, would yield a $543m total. Folks, we don't get many opportunities to witness something like this, even fewer in December, where holidays make dailies even more interesting to track, so let's enjoy THE box office event of 2009, a fitting way to conclude as well as extend the most eventful box office year in recent memory.

NOTE: I originally didn't realize there was a massive snowstorm happened on the 1999 New Year weekend, so after comparing with the dailies from the more recent years, I'm upping the Saturday and Sunday predictions respectively.

1 comment:

  1. Awesome breakdown as usual, Xia. I'm still being conservative with a $470m prediction but I just want to see how it acts after the holiday boost is over. This breakdown here though does ensure that TDK is within sight.

    This is the best box office blog on the web, Xia. Keep up the great work.