Friday, November 20, 2009

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 20 - 22)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon105.0$26,000 average
2. 201227.0-59%
3. The Blind Side18.3$5,900 average
4. A Christmas Carol14.2-36%
5. Planet 5111.5$3,800 average
6. Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire9.0+53%
7. The Men Who Stare at Goats3.0-49%
8. Michael Jackson's This Is It1.9-63%
9. Paranormal Activity1.8-55%
10. Couples Retreat1.8-57%

As we enter one of the most exciting November weekends in recent memory, a number of records, both positive and negative, are poised to be broken, almost all thanks to New Moon. The unstoppable latest Twilight installment has been selling out shows left and right, from coast to coast (and internationally), since the tickets became available three months ago. Even though we are no longer in the summer, the midnight record of $22m established by Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix just 4 months ago looks as good as gone. The question now is if it could have a strong enough showing for the rest of Friday to challenge The Dark Knight's opening day record of $67m. My feeling is the matinee business, while no doubt robust, will not be as spectacular as The Dark Knight was given it is November. A breakdown of $25m midnight + $37m the rest of the day is more likely. That would give it a $62m total for the second biggest and biggest non-summer Friday ever.

Not counting midnight, the first Twilight dropped 27% on Saturday from its opening day. New Moon could see a somewhat softer loss due to more spillover business from Friday, but sub-20% remains unrealistic. A 25% decline would give it a $28m Saturday and 55% drop overall from Friday, a record for a Saturday drop when it does not fall on Christmas Eve. That would put it on track for a $105m weekend, the biggest ever for November and an increase of 50% over its predecessor.

Was going to write more about this unique weekend which overall will be the busiest November weekend ever, but the very annoying toothache is taking away most of my concentration, and I'll have to take care of that first. Apologize here.

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