Friday, September 25, 2009

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 25 - 27)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs21.0-30.7%
2. Surrogates15.2$5,150 average
3. Fame14.5$4,680 average
4. The Informant!5.5-47.4%
5. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself4.9-50.4%
6. Love Happens4.5-44.2%
7. Pandorum3.8$1,500 average
8. 93.5-37.1%
9. Jennifer's Body2.8-59.2%
10. Inglourious Basterds2.4-37.2%

1. Three more movies are entering the market this week, but dislodging Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs will not be an easy task. Being one of the rare male-targeted films since August that is not rated R, Surrogates looks to have the most upside potential, and the tracking is putting it at a high-teen opening. The marketing has been efficient with an intriguing trailer, and the short running time will help. However, counting this weekend, we will have 14 wide releases in September alone, so the competition for screens as well as audience remains fierce. In addition, Bruce Willis has not experienced much success outside the summer season since 2005, with no film opening bigger than $11.9m (16 Blocks). Overall, Surrogates has a chance at breaking out to $20m, but the current climate is likely to keep the opening depressed somewhat.

2. Fame is also releasing at the right time, as it has an even less restricted PG rating and is targeting at the underserved demographics of teenage girls. MGM no doubt hopes to replicate the success its rival studios had with Stomp the Yard, Step Up, and Saving the Last Dance. The crowd marketplace is its biggest obstacle as well, and it should have the lowest internal multiplier among the openers given its audience. Look for it to win Friday, but then fall back over the weekend to lock in a battle with Surrogates for the second place.

3. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Pandorum is being released at a worst possible time: the R-rating, the direct Sci-fi competition from Surrogates, and no box office draw to lift it above the crowd. As a result, its opening will be severely compromised, even more so than what Sorority Row and Jennifer's Body saw the last couple of weekends.

4. Carrying excellent world-of-mouth and facing little new competition, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatball stands a great chance of repeating as the champion. Open Season dropped 33.9% on its second weekend, a feat it could very well duplicate, and a sub-30% decline similar to what The Game Plan achieved is entirely possible.

5. The Informant has seen strong midweek dailies, but the poor CinemaScore of C- remains a concern, as one with such poor grade seldom exhibits good legs. Combining the two factors gives a drop in the 45-50% range. Love Happens should also retain more than half of its earning from the opening weekend. Jennifer's Body has more upfront buzz and demand than Sorority Row, and the new releases will hit it harder by eating away both its male and female audience; look for a 60% or higher loss.

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis. I too think Cloudy will win the weekend by a ways. What were Pandorum distributors thinking putting it on this weekend? Guess its just a straight out dump.