Thursday, August 27, 2009

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 28 - 30)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Final Destination25.5$8,170 PTA
2. Inglourious Basterds17.0-55.3%
3. Halloween 216.5$5,455 PTA
4. District 99.0-50.6%
5. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra7.0-42.6%
6. Julie & Julia6.6-25.0%
7. The Time Traveler's Wife5.9-39.4%
8. Taking Woodstock4.0$2,872 PTA
9. Shorts3.5-45.4%
10. G-Force2.3-44.1%
11. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince2.3-33.9%

1. The BOM polls are favoring The Final Destination over Halloween 2 by quite a margin. Adding the 3D help, I expect the former to win the battle comfortably, despite what the tracking is showing.

2. The buzz for Halloween 2 does not appear to be anywhere near the level of the original. Its "Opening Weekend" percentage at BOM trails the original by 36%, I believe mostly due to going head-to-head with another R-rated horror film, a very dubious decision. We could see a similar degree of decline as what The Hills Have Eyes had.

3. Even though the 40-year anniversary of Woodstock makes this a natural release date, Taking Woodstock is opening at an inopportune time with all the R-rated films flooding the market at the moment. Ang Lee will bring in some fans of his, but the reviews are not at a good enough level in order for such offbeat film to break out.

4. Inglourious Basterds has had very similar dailies as District 9 so far. The heavier Monday decline will be offset by the better Friday recovery. However, two new R-rated films could provide more severe competition combined.

5. As we have observed for a couple of weeks, the holdovers are seeing both better Friday increases and bigger internal multipliers as summer is officially coming to a close. All should see better weekend holds than the respective Wed-to-Wed holds.

6. With four R-rated movies all targeting males at the top, both the less restricted and female-oriented films should benefit. Julie & Julia, which also enjoys excellent word-of-mouth on top of covering both areas, will especially shine. However, losing many 3D screens will hurt G-Force.

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