Monday, August 10, 2009

More thoughts on (500) Days of Summer

Little Miss Sunshine:

WeekendPTA ChangeTheater ChangeMultiplier from the Weekend on
1$52,999 PTA7 theaters161.1
2-51.8%+728.6%40.0
3-33.3%+163.8%21.8
4-52.3%+351.6%9.4


Garden State:

WeekendPTA ChangeTheater ChangeMultiplier from the Weekend on
1$22,346 PTA9 theaters132.8
2-34.6%+288.9%51.5
3-45.7%+400.0%18.4
4-41.6%+272.6%7.7


(500) Days of Summer:

WeekendPTA ChangeTheater ChangeMultiplier from the Weekend on
1$30,907 PTA27 theaters?
2-37.7%+214.8%?
3-45.8%+163.8%?
4-56.2%+207.1%?

The first two films provide the best comparison, as both were released in August and had similar expansion patterns so far. The trend does not favor (500) Days of Summer, as for three weekends in a row, it experienced a worse PTA hold than Garden State while having a smaller expansion percentage wise. Comparing with Little Miss Sunshine's last couple of weekends yields similar result. However, part of it has to do with the fact that Days of Summer started with 27 theaters right away, at least tripling what the other two had initially. So what is the trajectory pointing to exactly? Let's look at the multiplier with respect to theater count:

Garden State had a 51.5 multiple from its 35-theater weekend, while LMS had a 40 multiple from its 58-theater weekend. 27/35 = 77%, 35/58 = 60%; that would correlate to a multiple around 55 for 27 theaters, which would put DoS' total at $46m.

If we use LMS and GS's 3rd weekend as guide, the respective multipliers are 21.8 and 18.4, from theater counts of 153 and 175. That translates to a multiple of 12.5 for 266 theaters, giving DoS a $39m total.

If we use LMS and GS's 4th weekend as guide, the multipliers become 9.4 and 7.7, from respective theater counts of 691 and 652. Little Miss Sunshine started to separate itself here, as it had a bigger count and still finished with a higher multiplier, instead of the more regular pattern before. It is because with a high enough PTA, it was able to expand to a much bigger count (1,602) comparing to GS' peak (813). Days of Summer is still in a little better shape than GS on this front at the moment, as it's maintaining a similar PTA while in 165 more theaters. However, if the PTA decline trend continues, the advantage could evaporate very soon. So my suggestion would be to expand to 400 more theaters this weekend to make the maximum use of the waning momentum. If that is the case, it can have a better multiple from its 4th weekend than what GS had, although touching LMS' 9.4 is practically impossible. A 7.9 - 8.2 would put its total at $38-39m, and that is where I see it end up.

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