Sunday, August 30, 2009

Brief Weekend Analysis (Aug 28 - 30)

Being busy to get ready for the long weekend trip to Seattle/Vancouver, so I'll have a rather abbreviated version of the weekend recap. Apology first. In the mean time, for another expert's charts and opinions, I highly recommend Box Office Tracker. Here are his takes on The Final Destination and Halloween 2 as well as Inglourious Basterds' second weekend.

For the weekend, I am happy with my instincts on all three openers. The Final Destination surprised more on the upside and became the first one of the series to open at No. 1. The word-of-mouth is average but not toxic, and with 3D's help, it should have a good shot at $70m total. Halloween 2, on the other hand, disappointed as expected. The large Saturday and Sunday drops indicate rocky road ahead, not to mention the series is known for having short legs. Even $35m could be hard to reach. As for Taking Woodstock, any breakout potential it might have went out of the window after Cannes. Without good reviews, people did not see enough reason to justify a trip to theaters for it. With a $30m budget, it will be a rare failure for the team of James Schamus and Ang Lee.

I foresaw the holdovers would see bigger Friday increases once again, but I continued to underpredict the actual degree. Instead, they behaved more like what would happen on a Labor Day weekend with an average of 100% increase on Friday followed by 50% jump on Saturday. Among the top 12 films, the most impressive holds are Inglourious Basterds (for avoiding the 50% drop), Julie & Julia (which has its sight very much set on $100m), and (500) Days of Summer (4% PTA drop while losing only 8% of theaters).

I'd give the weekend a 4.5 out of 5 stars and 4 out of 5 for my own predictions.

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